新冠疫情对全球经济有什么影响呢？解读

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【经济学人精读】新冠疫情对全球经济有什么影响呢？

Free exchange自由贸易Covid-19 presents economic policymakers with a new sort of threatCovid-19给经济政策制定者带来了新的威胁It mixes demand and supply effects它混合了需求和供应的影响?1.?THE ONLY thing we have to fear is fear itself, or so reckoned Franklin Roosevelt. In?many an?economic downturn that is true—an anxiety-induced reluctance to spend is the main threat to prosperity. For now, the world is treating the outbreak of covid-19, a disease caused by a coronavirus that is now responsible for more than 2,000 deaths, as no exception. Central banks across Asia are?easing monetary?policy?while governments prepare spending programmes to limit the economic damage.富兰克林·罗斯福认为，我们应该恐惧的就是恐惧本身。在许多经济衰退中，这是事实。由焦虑导致的不愿消费是经济繁荣的主要威胁。目前，世界各国都在应对covid-19疫情，这是一种由冠状病毒引起的疾病，目前已造成2000多人死亡。亚洲各国央行正在放松货币政策，各国政府也在启动消费计划，以减少经济损失。2.?Covid-19, however, is not a conventional economic threat. Efforts to contain the virus are limiting activity by shutting factories and disrupting supply-chains. Such shocks to supply are harder to manage than anxiety-induced?frugality?among firms and investors. When people stop spending, growth slows and inflation falls. But when supply is constrained, prices can accelerate even as the economy?wobbles. Economists first?grappled with?supply shocks in the 1970s, when reductions in food and oil supplies ended three decades of?unprecedented?growth andushered in “stagflation”. Supply shocks divided the profession. Predictably, there was a row over whether governments should prior 内容过长，仅展示头部和尾部部分文字预览，全文请查看图片预览。 have appreciated before the arrival of the epidemic—shocks happen, and can transform?well-worn?economic terrain into something less familiar with frightening speed.对于被未知因素困扰的政策制定者来说，过度反应和反应不足都会带来严重的风险。不幸的是，在生产链和金融体系中增强弹性的时代已经过去。也许20世纪70年代最重要的教训是，世界应该在流行病冲击到来之前就意识到这一点，并且能够将旧的经济格局转变成对速度不难么一来的新经济格局。

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